Risk Perception

Outcome

% of [specify target group] perceiving a high likelihood of being severely affected by [specify the hazard]

The indicator shows the proportion of people who feel very likely to be severely affected by the specified hazard. The result helps teams identify population groups and locations where perceived risk is highest and where preparedness support may be most needed. As preparedness improves and people feel better protected, this percentage may decrease. However, a short-term increase might also indicate improved awareness of actual risks rather than increased vulnerability.

Collect the following data by conducting individual interviews with a representative sample of your target group members:

RECOMMENDED SURVEY QUESTION (Q) AND POSSIBLE ANSWERS (A)

Q1: How likely is it that you and your family would be severely affected if a [specify the hazard] happened? Is it very likely, likely or unlikely?

A1: 

1) very likely

2) likely

3) unlikely

4) does not know

  

NOTE: Only the answer "very likely" counts as "perceiving a high likelihood".

    

To calculate the indicator's value, divide the number of respondents perceiving a high likelihood of being severely affected by a given hazard by the total number of respondents (exclude those with "does not know" answer). Multiply the result by 100 to convert it to a percentage.

Disaggregate the data by wealth, gender, and by whether they adopted any risk-reduction measures promoted by your intervention.

1) In multi-hazard contexts, apply this indicator separately for each hazard. Risk perception often differs significantly across hazards - floods versus earthquakes - and combining them can mask important differences.

2) If your intervention focuses on reducing a specific vulnerability (for example, making houses more resistant to storms), adjust the question accordingly. For example: "In your opinion, if a strong storm arrives, how likely it is that your house will be able to withstand it without any major damage? Is it very likely, likely or unlikely?"

 

3) Ensure that all data collectors use the same definitions when explaining the response options without leading respondents toward a particular answer. For example:

• Very likely: “Highly possible that it could happen to you/your family”

• Likely: “Could easily happen to you/your family”

• Unlikely: “Probably will not happen to you/your family”

When explaining “severely affected”, provide 2-3 locally relevant examples such as serious injury, displacement, major loss of income or assets. However, avoid adding assumptions about what respondents should fear. These definitions should be reviewed with all data collectors to ensure consistent understanding.  

 

4) Be aware that different social groups may interpret “severely affected” differently based on lived experience. Such people include for example, women, older persons, people with disabilities, displaced households, or minority language speakers. These differences they identify are analytically important and should be documented rather than standardised away.

 

5) If interviews are conducted only with heads of households, record this as a limitation. Household heads may not represent the perceptions of all household members, for example, women, youth, older persons, or people with disabilities may perceive risk differently. Relying only on one respondent type may therefore underestimate or overestimate the overall level of perceived risk.