Anticipatory Assistance Reach

Output

number of [specify target group] who received anticipatory assistance before the forecasted hazard impact

This indicator measures how many people received anticipatory assistance before a predicted hazard event, based on pre-agreed triggers such as forecasts or early warnings. It applies only to projects implementing forecast-based or anticipatory action protocols, where support is delivered in advance of an expected impact. It does not cover regular emergency response provided after a hazard occurs. Anticipatory assistance may include cash transfers, protective equipment, livestock feed, water storage, or other early support designed to reduce expected impacts. The indicator helps assess the scale and timeliness of anticipatory assistance delivery under anticipatory action protocols.

1) Define what counts as anticipatory assistance: assistance provided before the forecasted hazard impact / onset, triggered by forecasts or early warning thresholds, and delivered under an agreed anticipatory action protocol. Timing is critical: count only assistance delivered before the forecasted impact / onset (or within the pre-defined anticipatory window). Exclude assistance delivered after impact / onset.

2) Document each activation: date/time of trigger (activation), hazard type, lead agency, target population, and number of people/households reached.

3) Obtain the number of people (or households) who received anticipatory assistance. Use project distribution records as the primary source. Additional sources may include partner reports or distribution databases. Where feasible, verify a sample of 10–20% of recipients and cross-check lists with local partners or DRM committees to avoid duplication.

4) Verify that the assistance was delivered before the forecasted impact / onset using post-distribution monitoring, interviews, delivery timestamps, or coordination records.

5) Calculate the indicator’s value by counting the total number of people (or households) who received anticipatory assistance. If population data are available, also express the result as a percentage of the total at-risk population in the target area.

Disaggregate by assistance type, activation / hazard, location, and key population characteristics used for targeting (e.g. gender, livelihood), and - where feasible - by delivery lead time.

1) To count under this indicator, assistance must be triggered by forecasts or early warnings and delivered before the forecasted hazard impact / onset (i.e. within the anticipatory window).

2) Use consistent definitions of “assistance,” “trigger,” and “target population” across reporting rounds for comparability.

3) Terminology note: Anticipatory action is the broader approach of taking steps before a forecast hazard to reduce impacts. Anticipatory assistance is a type of anticipatory action focused specifically on delivering support (e.g. cash, in-kind items, services) in advance so people can act.